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#ISSS2017 Vienna has ended

Thursday, July 13 • 14:30 - 15:00
3172 The Future of the Peruvian Natural Gas Through the Study of the Power of Influence of Stakeholders: Alternate Scenarios using Social Network Analysis with a Soft Systems Approach

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The work aims to study alternative scenarios that could occur in the future of the management of Peruvian natural gas, as a consequence of the synergy of actions of the diverse stakeholders that are involved in their management within the Peruvian reality.

Natural gas (NG) is becoming the central energy source on various economies around the world, replacing oil and coal and complementing the hydroelectric power supply, mainly because of its price in international markets and also because of its low level of pollution for human populations, the flora fauna and wildlife in general.

To address this issue, this paper, firstly, introduces the reader to the problematic situation of NG in the Peruvian case, mentioning the stakeholders involved on it and investigating their particular worldviews (weltanschauung) and objectives in relation to the problematic situation of NG, considering the level of power of influence from one stakeholders over others involved in the problematic situation, on issues concerned to strategic decisions related to NG. This implies, firstly, that these stakeholders are identified

Then, the paper shows possible alternate scenarios in relation to the future of NG, doing an analysis of probable courses of action of these scenarios considering the specific weight that each stakeholder has over others, in order to define these courses of action. For doing that, an analysis of the level of power from one stakeholder over other ones and the goals that of each them seeks around the NG are analyzed.

Following the scenarios methodology, four potential scenarios for the future development of NG are established, considering two axes: the level of exploration of NG Peruvian reserves on one side (axis 1) and the expansion of the use of the Peruvian NG at the internal and external markets level (axis 2). From these axes, four scenarios were defined that could be taken into account for the use of social network analysis (SNA) in order to define possible alternate scenarios on the future of Peruvian NG.

In order to do so, SNA is used to see the level of relationships with positive synergy (contribution, alliances) or not (opposition, lack of collaboration) among the stakeholders. SNA will also be used to consider how the level of power exercised by each stakeholder can influence over others, to conduct the whole sector to one of the delineated scenarios, to finally raise the probabilities of which scenario can occurs, based on the intentions and objectives of the stakeholders, expressed in their relevant systems and root definitions.

Finally the conclusions of the case are made, the learning points obtained from the development of the present work and comments on future developments concerning the issue and the approach applied are mentioned.

Thursday July 13, 2017 14:30 - 15:00